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Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain't!
01-08-2020, 06:11 PM,
#1
Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain't!
Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain't!

<span property="schema:name" class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Saker: To The Idiots That Think This Is Over, It Ain't!</span>

<div property="schema:text" class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p><a href="http://thesaker.is/round-one-is-over-an-initial-assessment/"><em>Via The Saker,</em></a></p>

<p><strong>Looks like Round 1 is over. </strong></p>

<p>Let’s begin with a small recap of events:</p>

<ul><li>
<p>Iran fired a relatively small number of short range missiles at one, possibly two, US bases</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The IRGC indicated that if Iran is attacked, then so will Israel</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Trump tweeted “so far, so good”</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The US reported no casualties</p>
</li>
</ul><p>In plain English this means that <strong>the strike was intended to be both highly visible AND symbolic</strong> (Iran has MANY more missiles, including longer ranged ones, which, if Iran wanted to, could strike every single US base in the Middle-East simultaneously.</p>

<p><u><strong>So what happened?</strong></u></p>

<p><strong><em>I think that Iran wanted to humiliate the US but in a manner which would be under the threshold which would guarantee a US/Israeli counter-strike.</em></strong></p>

<p>Next, I forced myself to listen to Esper and the Idiot-in-Chief.  Here are the salient points:</p>

<ul><li>
<p>Esper reiterated that the US does not want war with Iran</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The US does not want to leave Iraq because, unlike the Iraq MPs, many/most Iraqis want the US to stay</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The US armed forces are THE BEST in the history of the galaxy</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Trump will never allow Iran to have nukes</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Iran appears to be “standing down”</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Europe needs to ditch the JPCOA</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>NATO needs to get further involved in the Middle-East</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Iran bad bad bad, USA good good good</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The US armed forces are THE BEST in this history of the galaxy</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>USA! USA! USA! (etc.)</p>
</li>
</ul><p><strong>Okay, to those idiots who apparently think that it is over</strong> (or hope it is?)</p>

<p><strong>I can tell you for sure that it ain’t. </strong></p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=FGmdGcM4" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=FGmdGcM4"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=EFYdHsI7 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/jpeg"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=EFYdHsI7 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/jpeg"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=EFYdHsI7 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=EFYdHsI7 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/jpeg"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=EFYdHsI7 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/jpeg"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg?itok=FGmdGcM4 1x" type="image/jpeg"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a1642fce-ddbb-47d5-b504-48769689be8e" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="256" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/AdobeStock_103961819-us-iran-war-e1558621322166_0.jpeg" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p><strong>The goal of Iran and its allies is to get the USA out of the Middle-East.</strong></p>

<p>Thus these symbolic strikes appear to have given the US/Israeli a sense of relief which might bring them to let their guard down, making it much easier for Iran and its allies to strike again.</p>

<p>It is rather funny to see how the Iranian PR machine “packaged” this one:</p>

<blockquote>
<p><em><strong>if you dare hit us, we will hit you in your most holy and sacred, i.e. Israel.  </strong></em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>So far this “we get to shoot at you but you don’t get to shoot back” has worked, but only because the Iranian strike was so symbolic.</p>

<p><u><strong>Conclusion:</strong></u></p>

<blockquote>
<p>this is far, FAR <strong>veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrry far from over.</strong></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Still, <strong>I have to downgrade the likelihood of a massive and imminent war back from 90% to 80%</strong>.</p>

<p>*  *  *</p>

<p><u><strong>ZH:</strong></u> And given tonight's Iran-backed militia rockets being fired into the Green Zone, it appears The Saker was right. <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/stocks-suddenly-tumble-after-green-zone-explosion-headline">As we noted earlier,</a> contrary to the carefully built narrative that the US and Iran have become nothing short of BBFs, the risk for re-escalation remains huge. As Stratfor noted this morning, Iraq, in particular, could present a theater for action, <strong>as Iranian-allied Iraqi militias have also been galvanized by the recent U.S. strikes and likely will be keen to seek retribution. </strong></p>

<blockquote>
<p>If an attack by those militias kills a U.S. soldier or contractor in Iraq or Syria, the risks of escalation to a direct military exchange between the United States and Iran would again climb. <strong>After all, the United States will hold Iran responsible for the actions of some of its allied militias, especially the mostly Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq.</strong></p>
</blockquote>

<p>As such, contrary to the desires of bullish daytraders, the existence of these triggers for potential escalation and the atmosphere of tension that will linger between the two adversaries keeps the long-term risk of a military confrontation alive, even if their current face-off goes no further.</p>
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<span rel="schema:author" class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden">
<a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden">Tyler Durden</a>
</span>
<span property="schema:dateCreated" content="2020-01-08T21:45:00+00:00" class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden">Wed, 01/08/2020 - 16:45</span>

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