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Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40' Containers Collapse
03-06-2019, 05:23 AM,
#1
Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40' Containers Collapse
Trade Panic: China To US Weekly Spot Rates For 40' Containers Collapse

<p>A continued slowdown in the rate at which weekly spot rates for 40' shipping containers are being shipped from China to North America suggests US demand for Chinese goods continues to stumble, and<strong> signals a broader economic slowdown globally looms.</strong></p>

<p>The Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) represents ocean freight prices for 40' shipping containers, is published weekly on Sundays and represents the price of the previous week (Sunday through Saturday). Prices used in the index are rolling short term freight spot tariffs between carriers, freight forwarders, and high-volume shippers. Index values are calculated by taking the median price for all prices on active lanes with weighting by the shipper.</p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=7uxSBCux 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=7uxSBCux 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png?itok=aA9fGFZA 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="129a654f-70e6-4f58-b9bd-9d9434e68495" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="266" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/ship%20sinking.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>During the last sixteen weeks, FBX 40' shipping container rates from China to North America have<strong> seen a dramatic move lower, raising concerns about the health of underlying demand.</strong></p>

<p>The North America West Coast to China/East Asia Index (FBX02) is down 39% since early November highs, retesting the 50% Fibonacci retracement level late last month and recently broke below December's lows, is expected to probe 61.8%-Fib in the coming weeks. </p>

<p>The index had a notable impulse starting in March/April 2018, the move lasted 224 days and sent the index up 218% - thanks to President Trump's trade war against China, which forced US importers to pull orders forward to get ahead of tariffs. However, by early November, rates collapsed after the importers were finished, with no signs of a trough in early March.</p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=BCwYV3IS 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=BCwYV3IS 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png?itok=Wkx0GBNQ 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="b9a6e006-d8cc-4417-8d54-fb677b8232ff" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="240" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-35-05.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>The North America East Coast to China/East Asia Index (FBX04) is down 26% since the end of November highs, is currently retesting the December lows when global markets were in a panic about slowing growth. </p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=kNV0eZVR 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=kNV0eZVR 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png?itok=9XRp79Gw 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9a11d538-d705-4493-9890-62346bf4d686" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="241" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2019-03-05_06-50-27.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>FBX <strong>shipping data shows 40' shipping container rates are experiencing the worst pressure in North America East Coast to China/East Asia, China/East Asia to Europe, and North America West Coast to China. </strong></p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=3wraQH6p 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=3wraQH6p 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png?itok=y_mrkNSs 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="7b62ca1d-36e5-4bb0-bce3-0df5d790c2fb" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="132" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-01-53.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>As a whole, the FBX Global Index shows <strong>container rates are in danger of taking out their December lows, signaling that the global slowdown is not a "glitch," but rather the start of a severe synchronized downturn. </strong></p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=m99FKJ7D 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=m99FKJ7D 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png?itok=2iz_eN-f 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="d2c9601d-acb3-429b-ba26-a8b21803afdd" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="252" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-22-07.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>On top of container rates plummeting, world trade has slowed in recent months, and leading indicators point to ongoing deceleration.</p>

<p><a data-image-external-href="" data-image-href="/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V" data-link-option="0" href="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V"><picture><!--[if IE 9]><video style="display: none;"><![endif]--><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V 1x" media="all and (min-width: 1280px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V 1x" media="all and (min-width: 480px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V 1x, https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-...k=2goAjw7V 2x" media="all and (min-width: 1024px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=2goAjw7V 1x" media="all and (min-width: 768px)" type="image/png"></source><source srcset="https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/styles/inline_image_mobile/public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png?itok=uxldajQg 1x" type="image/png"></source><!--[if IE 9]></video><![endif]--><img data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c976a6e0-5722-4449-8584-0905c1d0667d" data-responsive-image-style="inline_images" height="245" width="500" src="https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/2019-03-05_07-25-39.png" alt="" typeof="foaf:Image" /></picture></a></p>

<p>Of course, the FBX data is just the latest in a long line of worrying news for the Chinese economy but now shows the global slowdown is contagious, infecting the US economy where growth is expected to be less than 1% to near zero for 1Q19. </p><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~4/0pThG5K6_EU" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>


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